성남이혼전문변호사 From Alaska: High Hopes for LNG, but Who Will Bear the Risks? > 자유게시판

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성남이혼전문변호사 From Alaska: High Hopes for LNG, but Who Will Bear the Risks…

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댓글 0건 조회 1회 작성일 26-10-24 18:26

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성남이혼전문변호사 A three-hour drive south of Anchorage, Alaska‘s largest city, leads to Nikiski, a small industrial area on the shores of Cook Inlet. Dense coniferous forests line the road to this community, which is home to oil and gas production facilities and a large fertilizer plant that has ceased operations. This is where the proposed Alaska LNG pipeline, for which the United States is seeking South Korean investment, would terminate.
When I visited the proposed LNG liquefaction plant and export terminal site on October 18, the area was quiet. The shoreline where a marine export terminal covering approximately 81,000 square meters is planned was an empty expanse of land. The proposed onshore liquefaction plant site, an area equivalent to roughly 510 soccer fields, still had existing roads and houses. There was no visible sign that site preparation had begun.
President Donald Trump had visited Alaska on October 13 and declared that all permits had been secured and construction could begin “tonight.” Yet five days later, silence still hung over the site.
Despite the stillness at the proposed construction site, local residents expressed hope that the project would finally become a reality.
Crystal, 80, who has owned a bar near the proposed site for nearly three decades, said she had attended every community meeting Glenfarne, the project‘s developer, had held at the local recreation center.
“I believe it‘s going to happen,” she said of the proposed pipeline that would bring natural gas from Prudhoe Bay on Alaska’s North Slope to Nikiski. “You‘re going to benefit from it, too,” she added, referring to South Koreans.
Asked why she believed the project would succeed this time after decades of failed attempts, she replied, “I don‘t know. I’m not a mechanic.” She said she was not interested in dwelling on why previous projects had failed.
“All I am for is now. I want it to happen now,” she said. “Enough negative, enough bullshit. Let‘s all get together and work on this and get it going.”
Jonas, 27, a regular at the bar, also believed that Trump’s strong backing, combined with South Korean investment, could produce a different outcome this time.
When told that the South Korean government had not made a final investment decision and that Trump had made the announcement unilaterally, he laughed and said, “Trump is crazy.”
“We‘re close allies,” he added. “I don’t see anything wrong with Korea investing in the U.S.”
Other customers at the bar also had a message for South Koreans. “Make sure you tell them how much we want this pipeline to happen,” they said.
The residents’ eagerness to see the pipeline built reflects Alaska’s increasingly difficult energy situation.
For decades, Southcentral Alaska, including Anchorage and Nikiski, where roughly two-thirds of the state‘s population lives, has relied on natural gas produced from Cook Inlet for heating and electricity generation. Surplus gas was even exported to Japan through the LNG terminal in Nikiski.
But those exports ended in 2015. With production from Cook Inlet gas fields declining, the region is expected to face a shortfall in meeting local demand as early as next year.
Higher energy bills are already a reality, with rising oil prices adding to the burden. Crystal said her energy costs had increased by nearly 30 percent compared with a year earlier.
The Kenai Peninsula Borough, which includes Nikiski, is pursuing plans to make up the gas shortfall through imports. The LNG export terminal in Nikiski, which has stood idle for more than a decade since shipments to Japan stopped, is now preparing to be converted into an import terminal.
For Peter Micciche, mayor of the Kenai Peninsula Borough, the situation carries a particular irony. He previously worked for ConocoPhillips, where he was involved in LNG exports to Japan.
In a video interview with The Kyunghyang Daily News on October 15, Micciche said that even if construction on Alaska LNG began immediately, it would take another three to four years before gas could reach Southcentral Alaska.
Importing natural gas into a state with enormous gas reserves of its own is politically difficult, he acknowledged. But he said he had tried to help residents understand that “the price per unit is more important than the politics of using Alaska gas only.”
That does not mean Micciche has given up on Alaska LNG.
He hopes the project will eventually allow Nikiski to return to its days as an LNG exporter. The new gas supply could help revive shuttered industrial facilities, including the fertilizer plant, and bring back economic activity.
“I want to make Nikiski noisy again,” he said.
Micciche acknowledged the enormous challenges facing the project but emphasized Alaska LNG‘s geopolitical advantages as a secure and reliable source of energy.
“I sold LNG to two customers in Japan without missing a single shipload for 40 years,” he said.
While price competitiveness remains a challenge, he argued, the project also offers important benefits in terms of supply security and reliability.
Not everyone in Nikiski shares that optimism.
Some residents with firsthand experience in the oil and gas industry are skeptical of the project‘s economic viability.
Ron, 72, whom I met on October 19 at a diner frequented by industrial workers before and after their shifts, described North Slope gas development as extremely expensive and said the project would be difficult to bring to fruition.
Ron has worked in the oil and gas industry for more than 50 years. That morning, he was heading home after working through the night.
“The biggest problem is the high level of impurities in the gas,” he said, pointing to the extensive processing required to make it suitable for sale.
According to the minutes of a 2015 Alaska legislative finance committee hearing, Prudhoe Bay gas contains approximately 12 percent carbon dioxide, among the highest levels for major LNG projects worldwide. The facilities needed to remove the impurities were estimated to cost between $10 billion and $12 billion.
Ron doubted that Alaska LNG would be able to compete on price.
Building the pipeline presents an even greater challenge.
Transporting natural gas from the North Slope to Nikiski would require a pipeline stretching approximately 800 miles. It would have to cross more than 440 waterways, ranging from small streams to major rivers, and run for tens of kilometers beneath Cook Inlet, where powerful tidal currents create difficult construction conditions.
Above all, excavating permafrost to bury the pipeline is a high-risk undertaking that could destabilize the ground and trigger subsidence.
Mikhail Kanevskiy, a permafrost expert at the Institute of Northern Engineering at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, said in a written interview with The Kyunghyang Daily News that one of the project‘s greatest challenges is the presence of ice-rich permafrost along parts of the proposed route.
“Unfortunately, the entire pipeline route does not follow the existing oil pipeline,” he said. Extensive geophysical surveys and drilling would be necessary to identify and assess permafrost conditions, he explained.
When ice in the permafrost melts, the ground above it can sink, potentially destabilizing buried pipelines.
Kanevskiy‘s research team examined a section of the Dalton Highway north of Fairbanks and found that ice-rich soils lost between 20 and 60 percent of their thickness upon thawing. In some locations, massive underground ice wedges occupied nearly half the ground volume.
Climate change is adding to these risks.
Kanevskiy warned that rising permafrost temperatures and changing precipitation patterns could accelerate permafrost degradation.
According to a report by the American Meteorological Society, permafrost temperatures along Alaska‘s northern coast have risen by 0.4 to 0.8 degrees Celsius per decade.
At Point Lay, an Arctic coastal village studied by Kanevskiy‘s team, ground subsidence has damaged buried water and sewer lines, while roughly two-thirds of homes have suffered damage.
A particularly difficult problem is locating ice hidden underground.
In a road section measuring just over 4.5 kilometers, researchers found ice wedges in eight of nine boreholes in one area, but in only one of 12 boreholes in a nearby area. Subsurface conditions differed dramatically over a distance of approximately one kilometer.
More than 60 boreholes were needed to investigate this relatively short stretch.
Although remote sensing and artificial intelligence are helping researchers conduct surveys, Kanevskiy said substantial drilling and sampling are still necessary. He was not certain whether such investigations could be carried out more efficiently today than during construction of the Trans-Alaska oil pipeline 50 years ago.
These difficult geological conditions and complex construction requirements not only drive up costs but also heighten the risk of unforeseen cost overruns.
Some Alaska lawmakers question whether those risks have been adequately reflected in the developer‘s cost estimates.
State Senator Cathy Giessel, a Republican who chairs the Alaska Senate Resources Committee, criticized Glenfarne’s estimated project cost of $44.5 billion to $54.5 billion as overly optimistic.
In a telephone interview with The Kyunghyang Daily News on October 14, Giessel pointed out that even Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy had publicly suggested the project could cost $70 billion.
“$70 billion, probably on paper, that‘s a good number,” she said. “But when you actually put it into the ground with delays and increased costs due to inflation and shortage of materials, we expect that cost will be closer to $90 to $100 billion.”
Giessel described a scenario in which Glenfarne begins pipeline construction without adequate preparation, planning or financing, only to halt work suddenly, as her worst fear.
She was also deeply concerned about the possibility that rising costs would make the project uncompetitive, leaving Alaska with a pipeline but no completed LNG export facilities.
The project’s economic model depends on recovering the enormous construction costs through large-scale LNG exports. If that model collapses, the burden could fall on Alaskans, whose domestic gas demand is relatively small.
Annual natural gas demand in Southcentral Alaska is approximately 2 billion cubic meters, a tiny fraction of the pipeline‘s planned capacity.
Giessel said Alaskans were deeply concerned that they should not be subsidizing the project or bearing its financial risks.
“At this point, it appears we are,” she said.
Giessel also welcomed the South Korean government’s response when President Trump announced that Seoul had committed $54 billion to the project. South Korea quickly clarified that no such investment decision had been finalized.
“I really appreciated the almost immediate response from the Korean government saying, hold on, we never said that,” she said.
She described Seoul’s cautious approach as wise, reflecting her hope that the government would thoroughly scrutinize the project’s economics before making any investment decision.
Even Micciche, one of the project‘s strong supporters, said he understood South Korea’s concerns about its commercial viability.
Nevertheless, he appealed to the South Korean government to “stay at the table.”
Micciche argued that Alaska has important national security needs, including the possibility of new military bases, as well as opportunities to develop critical minerals. Reliable energy supplies would be essential to supporting those activities, he said.
He hopes such strategic considerations could help attract federal investment, reducing the financial burden on private investors and improving the project‘s competitiveness. That, in turn, could encourage additional buyers and investors to participate.
“It‘s not a finished project,” Micciche said, emphasizing that work remained to develop a competitive financing package. “Stay at the table,” he urged South Korea. “We need our partners, our export partners to be at the table to help us develop a finance plan that‘s competitive.”
Yet within Alaska itself, there are sharp disagreements over proposed tax breaks intended to improve the project‘s economics.
Glenfarne has sought to replace existing property taxes on project facilities, including the pipeline, with a tax based on the volume of natural gas transported. The change would effectively reduce its tax burden by an estimated 80 to 90 percent.
But concerns over lost revenue for local governments and the potential transfer of costs to residents remained unresolved. Despite three special legislative sessions, the proposed tax relief legislation failed to pass in August.
Even Micciche, who strongly supports the project, drew a line on shifting costs to local taxpayers. He said he was willing to negotiate property tax reductions, but the project would still have to cover additional local expenses associated with roads, public services and other community needs.
Alaska politicians and local governments recognize the project‘s potential benefits, but they are also determined to minimize the financial risks borne by their own residents.
South Korea, meanwhile, faces pressure to invest $54 billion in a project that could leave it with enormous losses if it fails. If public money is invested and subsequently lost, South Korean taxpayers could ultimately bear the cost.
Financial costs and tax burdens are not the only potential price of Alaska LNG.
Environmental groups warn that large-scale development could have serious consequences for the marine ecosystem of Cook Inlet.
Ben Boettger, an energy policy analyst at the Alaska environmental group Cook Inletkeeper, said in a written interview with The Kyunghyang Daily News that LNG carriers would cross critical habitat for the endangered Cook Inlet beluga whale.
“Alaska LNG would have a severe impact on Cook Inlet belugas,” he said. Boettger warned that noise from increased ship traffic could interfere with the whales’ ability to hunt and communicate through sound, making it even harder for the population to recover. Cook Inlet belugas have declined from around 1,300 in the 1970s to just over 300 today.
He also raised concerns about climate change. According to a 2023 U.S. Department of Energy analysis, Alaska LNG could generate 2.7 billion to 2.8 billion metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions over 30 years, from production through final combustion.
Boettger challenged the argument that LNG would necessarily reduce global emissions by replacing coal. He warned that long-term LNG purchase agreements could discourage investment in renewable energy in South Korea, as utilities often have to pay for contracted gas even if they do not use it.
The project could also affect fishermen in Cook Inlet.
Penelope Haas, who has worked in commercial fishing for 19 years and lives in the coastal city of Homer at the southern end of the Kenai Peninsula, expressed concern about the potential consequences of LNG terminal construction, increased vessel traffic and accidental spills.
“The tides in Cook Inlet are huge, and there’s lots of current, strong currents and ice that make it difficult to reliably operate there,” she said in an interview with The Kyunghyang Daily News.
But her greatest concern was whether the project made economic sense at all. Haas acknowledged that some fishermen supported energy development because the region’s natural gas shortages had raised concerns about energy costs.
Personally, however, she had long doubted whether Alaska LNG was realistic. “It always seemed to me like this project is not realistic,” she said. “So I‘ve never really paid much attention to it.”
The LNG would have to sell at an extremely high price to recover the massive investment, she argued. “It seems like a lot of talk, but nothing real,” she said, adding that the project had made little progress over the years because of its economics.
Haas also wanted South Koreans to understand what is at stake in Cook Inlet. “Cook Inlet is one of the few places on the earth that still has wild salmon,” she said. “These are not hatchery fish or farmed fish. They are true wild fish.”
She hoped South Koreans would recognize the value of the region’s remaining wild salmon populations.
Then she delivered a direct message to South Korea. “I think that Trump is pushing this for politics. It’s playing politics, but not economics,” she said.
“From one Cook Inlet fisherman to the South Korean people, I do not advise you to invest in the LNG project.”
“You’re going to lose money.”
보건복지부가 오는 12월24일 비대면진료 정식 제도화를 앞두고 진료·처방 기준을 마련하기 위해 ‘의료법 시행규칙’과 ‘의료관계 행정처분 규칙’ 일부 개정령안 등을 입법예고하자 의·약계와 비대면진료 플랫폼 업계가 각기 다른 주장을 펼치며 맞서고 있다.
정부 방안의 핵심은 비대면진료를 받으려는 환자의 대면진료 이력에 따라 진료와 처방 기준을 달리 적용하는 것이다. 초진 비대면진료의 처방일수를 원칙적으로 7일 이내로 제한했다. 예외적으로 기존 치료를 계속할 필요가 있다고 판단되는 경우에만 최대 30일까지 허용한다. 초진 비대면진료를 받을 수 있는 지역에도 제한을 뒀다. 환자의 주민등록상 주소지와 같은 시도에 있는 의원에서만 초진 비대면진료를 받을 수 있도록 했다. 해당 의료기관에서 6개월 이내 같은 증상으로 대면진료를 받은 이력이 있다면 일반 비대면진료를 받을 수 있다. 이 경우 처방일수에는 별도의 상한을 두지 않았다.
의료계는 최대 30일까지 처방할 수 있도록 한 예외 규정이 지나치게 느슨하다고 주장한다. 대한의사협회는 “직접 진찰 없이 이뤄지는 초진 처방을 7일 이내로 묶는 것은 환자 안전을 위한 최소한의 안전장치”라며 “단 한 번이라도 경과 확인 없이 한 달치 약을 내주는 것은 7일 원칙을 무력화하고, 비대면 초진을 장기 처방과 향후 허용 확대의 통로로 만드는 일”이라고 비판했다. 의협은 초진 30일 처방 예외 조항을 삭제하고, 예외가 필요하다면 14일 이내로 제한해야 한다고 요구했다.
대한약사회는 초진뿐 아니라 재진 비대면진료의 처방일수에도 상한을 둬야 한다고 주장한다. 개정안은 초진 처방일수만 제한할 뿐, 재진 처방일수에는 아무런 상한을 두고 있지 않다. 비대면 진료로 1년치 약을 한꺼번에 처방하는 것도 가능하다. 약사회는 “재진 비대면진료에도 1회 최대 60일의 처방일수 제한을 명시해야 한다”고 요구했다.
반면 비대면진료 플랫폼 업계는 초진 처방일수를 원칙적으로 7일로 제한하는 것이 과도한 규제라는 입장이다. 원격의료산업협의회(원산협)는 “기존 의료기관이 비대면진료를 하지 않게 돼 환자가 계속 다른 병원을 이용해야 하는 상황이라면, 비대면진료로 30일분의 약을 확보하기 위해 적어도 다섯 차례는 진료가 필요하다”고 주장했다. 원산협은 “환자는 불필요한 반복 진료를 받아야 하며, 그만큼 시간과 진료비는 물론 건강보험 재정 부담도 증가할 수밖에 없다”고 했다.
복지부 관계자는 “개정 의료법의 취지는 대면진료를 원칙으로 하고 비대면진료는 예외적으로 허용한다는 것”이라며 “여러 의원을 돌아다니며 비대면진료만으로 약물을 과다하게 처방받는 사례를 막기 어려워 제한을 두려 했다”고 설명했다. 각계 반발에 대해서는 “의협, 약사회, 원산협 등이 참여한 협의체를 운영하면서 각계 의견을 수렴해 마련한 안”이라고 했다.
김여정 북한 노동당 총무부장이 22일 “전 국경선에서 우리의 새로운 대응 수단들은 임무 대기태세에 들어갈 것”이라고 밝혔다. 전날 비무장지대(DMZ) 내 대남 확성기 방송 가동 상태 돌입과 새 화력 부대 배치를 언급한 데 이어 군사분계선(MDL) 인근의 군사적 긴장을 재차 끌어올린 것이다. 외교부는 “유엔 안전보장이사회 의장 앞으로 서한을 발송할 예정”이라고 밝히며 북한군의 MDL 인근 지뢰 매설과 김 부장의 연이은 담화에 대응 조치에 나섰다.
김 부장이 이날 “전 국경선에서 우리의 새로운 대응 수단들은 임무 대기태세에 들어갈 것이며 대한국 확성기들도 수일 안으로 대기 상태에 들어가게 된다”고 밝혔다고 조선중앙통신이 보도했다.
김 부장은 “우리의 주권이 행사되는 령내에서 우리의 목적에 따르는 국경 영구화 공사는 어김없이 성과적으로 계속될 것”이라며 “국경이 요새화되면 조한 사이의 군사적 충돌 위험은 현저히 낮아질 것이며, 많은 복잡한 문제들이 해결될 것”이라고 밝혔다.
김 부장은 “청와대 국방정책특별보좌관이라는 자는 횡설수설 말고 입을 당장 닥쳐야 한다”며 청와대를 겨냥한 입장도 밝혔다. 김 부장은 “이미 문재인, 윤석열 정권도 상대해 보았지만 지금 정권의 달구지에 몸을 실은 자들만큼 어리석고 한심하기 짝이 없는 것들은 처음 본다”며 “적반하장이라는 말을 쓰자면 총 한방 쏘지 않은 사람들에게 총질을 해대며 도발을 한다고 떠드는 것을 보고 적반하장이라 해야 할 것”이라고 밝혔다.
대통령 국방정책특별보좌관인 김병주 더불어민주당 의원은 전날 페이스북에 “김여정 부장, 지뢰를 묻은 손으로 적대적 확성기를 잡지 마라. 북한의 도발로 우리 장병이 피를 흘렸고 유엔사도 북한의 정전협정 위반이라고 판정했다”며 “김여정은 빤한 거짓말로 자작극이라 우기며 확성기로 위협한다. 뻔뻔하고 낯 두꺼운 적반하장”이라고 밝혔다.
김 부장의 이날 발언은 지난달 21일 서부전선 비무장지대(DMZ) 지뢰 폭발 사고 이후 10번째 나온 메시지다. 김 부장은 지난 3일 중거리 전략미사일 발사 훈련 발표 외에 나머지 9건에선 DMZ 지뢰 폭발 사고를 직간접적으로 언급했다.
김 부장은 특히 최근 나흘간 DMZ 지뢰 폭발 사고 관련 담화나 입장을 세 차례 이어갔다. 특히 전날에는 “새로운 화력 구분대들의 사격진지 차지”를 언급한 데 이어 이날 “새로운 대응수단들은 임무 대기태세”까지 거론하며 군사적 긴장 수위를 끌어올리려 한 것으로 풀이된다.
다만 김 부장이 전날 “확성기 가동 상태” 돌입과 이날 “확성기 대기 상태”라는 표현을 연이어 쓴 것은 확성기 재개에 여지를 두면서 대남 압박을 이어가려는 의도라는 평가도 나온다.
외교부는 DMZ 지뢰 폭발 사고 이후 한 달여 만에 유엔 안보리 의장에 서한을 발송하며 본격적인 외교적 대응에 나섰다. 박두순 외교부 대변인은 이날 정례브리핑에서 “유엔 안보리 의장 앞으로 서한을 발송할 예정”이라며 “뉴욕 현지 시간으로 22일 발송 예정을 목표로 두고 있다”고 밝혔다.
박 대변인은 “폭발이 북한군이 매설한 지뢰에 의한 것으로 명백한 정전협정 위반임을 설명하고 북한의 사과와 책임 있는 조치를 요구할 예정”이라며 “긴장 고조 방지와 신뢰 회복을 위한 대화 등을 촉구하는 내용이 담길 것”이라고 말했다. 박 대변인은 “최근 북한이 MDL 일대에서 이뤄지는 우리 군의 정당한 작전 활동을 도발로 규정하며 역내 긴장 고조의 책임을 우리 측에 전가하려는 데 대해서도 주의를 환기하고자 한다”고 밝혔다.
통일부는 이날 입장을 내고 “MDL 일대에서 정전협정을 위반하고 긴장과 충돌의 위험을 키우는 행위는 즉시 중단돼야 한다”며 “북측은 우리에 대한 위협을 멈추고, 실효적인 문제 해결을 위해 노력하기를 촉구한다”고 밝혔다. 통일부는 “남북 간 긴장과 충돌의 위험을 방지하기 위한 근본적인 해결방안은 MDL에 대한 남북의 입장을 일치시키고 평화적 관리를 위한 소통체계를 하루빨리 마련하는 것”이라고 밝혔다.
국방부 합동참모본부는 이날 김 부장의 연이은 담화·발언에 대응한 공식 입장을 내지 않았다. 이재명 대통령과 청와대의 입장도 없었다.

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